| As of this post, the current rating for Yuri Kuma Arashi is 7.32 on MAL. It reached a low of 6.25 which is an abysmally low score on a site where 95% of television anime fall between 7.00 and 8.10 (see follow-on post for correction). However, a majority of viewers don't rate shows until they end, and at least some of the dropped scores will be chopped off the average once the show ends on approximately March 22nd. Giving myself a healthy margin of error, let's pose the question: What will the rating of Yuri Kuma Arashi on MAL will be on April 12th, 2015? I chose this date because it is at least two weeks after the show ends so that the bulk of viewers can have finished the show and apply a rating. To create some prediction, I will set a final entry date. No guesses may be made or altered after March 1st, 2015. Personally, although I am enjoying the show, I think it is at a tipping point right now in terms of proving itself. If it can't hold together like Utena or Penguindrum, its possible that even Ikuhara fans might turn on the show and its score will wallow in the lowest depths of MAL. However, it could live up to his previous works and start on a meteoric rise to reach a rating comparable to Ikuhara's other shows. For reference and in assisting people in making their guesses, I will include the current ratings of the last two Ikuhara shows: Revolutionary Girl Utena: 8.20 Mawaru Penguindrum: 8.16 I'll update this thread to maintain users' guesses. We will determine the winner based on who is closest, above or below the score taken at 11 PM EDT on April 12th, 2015. The winner gains only the pride of being right, and recognition in this thread. Feel free to justify your prediction and start a discussion. Good luck! Current Entries: Congratulations to tsudecimo and chrisandro for having the closest guess at 7.30! Third place goes to SakurasouBuster for a guess of 7.40! |
BdiahApr 12, 2015 8:04 PM
| It will only depend on its later half and ending. So far it's interesting, but not something overly good. So far it's one of the most interesting entries this season, but it's not an easy to get into this show with very superficial view. |
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| I suppose I should set a final entry date... Let's say that no guesses may be made or altered after March 1st, 2015. That should mean that at least the last two and probably the last three episodes will have to be speculated upon. Also, I'll go ahead and start by guessing.....7.35 |
| I don't think it will change. Most of MAL community don't get Ikuhara's style or more deep works. They need PEWPEWS and explosions everywhere and some Sawano music for it to be rated higher than this. |
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CookingPriest said: I don't think it will change. Most of MAL community don't get Ikuhara's style or more deep works. They need PEWPEWS and explosions everywhere and some Sawano music for it to be rated higher than this. If you're confident it won't change, then make a prediction! Or should I put you down for 6.27? |
CookingPriest said: I don't think it will change. Most of MAL community don't get Ikuhara's style or more deep works. They need PEWPEWS and explosions everywhere and some Sawano music for it to be rated higher than this. It's a little too generalizing. We have Tatami Galaxy and Ping Pong rated very high. |
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| Mawaru Penguindrum started off at high 7.xx and ended off in the 8s. This one is only a one cour, so I'll guess it'll be 6.9 when it's done. robis798 said: It's a little too generalizing. We have Tatami Galaxy and Ping Pong rated very high. Ikuhara is more symbolism and mindfuck while Yuasa is more about the style. |
| Yeah even if Ping Pong is untraditional most viewers go "omg this looks soocooooooooool". Ikuhara's works are not made to look "cool". They are made to have meaning |
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| Well what I wanted to say is that both Tatami and Ping Pong are very different shows that don't have neither explosions ( I think ) nor Sawano ost but still are rated and received highly. This one also might end up higher. Though I don't think so. |
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CookingPriest said: I don't think it will change. Most of MAL community don't get Ikuhara's style or more deep works. Yet Utena and Penguindrum are very well-rated. Penguindrum was received pretty poorly until about the halfway point. If and when this show starts coming around, I can see a similar result. |
| I don't think i'll be able to give it a score until its finished but im for certain that it will not match up to Penguindrum or Utena. |
| by Baka-Chibi |
| 6.89 |
SeibaaHomu said: Every single one of Ikuhara's shows is lower rated than Mirai Nikki. Fuck the western anime community so hard. First off, why only the Western anime community? I highly doubt that the Japanese ratings are significantly different. Second, why is this such a big deal? I know that people have different reasons for rating things the way they do, but more often than not, those kinds of things boil down to a popularity contest. Given that, I'm more than a little surprised that Utena and Penguindrum have the ratings they do (especially Penguindrum). And let's be honest, here. That kind of comment is essentially disparaging people because they like different things, and for different reasons, than you do. What does that actually accomplish? There isn't a single person who can say that their taste is the shining example of quality. To do so is complete arrogance. If you look at the actual numbers, Mirai Nikki isn't rated that much higher than Utena, which is currently the highest-rated of Ikuhara's shows. Mirai Nikki's rating is 8.25. Utena's rating is 8.20. Penguindrum's rating is 8.16. Those are differences of 0.05 and 0.09. That's nothing. Why spend your time and energy arguing about such an insignificant difference? More importantly, really, who cares about what number a show gets? There are sooooo many more things you could talk about, especially regarding a show like Yurikuma. And ultimately, it's shows like Utena and Penguindrum that seem to stand the test of time much moreso than shows like Mirai Nikki. If you really want to argue about worth (and, again, what's the point of that?), then that's probably a better route to take than going by a number. |
CookingPriest said: Yeah even if Ping Pong is untraditional most viewers go "omg this looks soocooooooooool". Ikuhara's works are not made to look "cool". They are made to have meaning Except that after the first ep of Ping Pong most people were like "it's so ugly, I'd like it more if it had better visuals". And they ended up loving the show because they 'got used' to the visual style. This is stupid because the visual style was great and unique and with interesting character movement from the get go and people, being the conservative mob they are, were just being resistant to something new. It was the same deal with Aku no Hana except that's more traditionally ugly (because rotoscoping and real life people are not without flaw like anime characters). Its rating jumped up to 7.3 or something by the end (and I recall it being below 5 at one point). With regards to Yurikuma - I think it will remain low but hit 7 at least. The show's style (not visual) is more abstract than Penguindrum. And there's the yuri thing which people either don't like on principal or because this show is ruining what yuri normally is. It kind of reminds me of the later Penguindrum eps where the symbolism came entirely to the forefront. |
| 8.0 if plot thickens. BigSimo said: It was the same deal with Aku no Hana except that's more traditionally ugly (because rotoscoping and real life people are not without flaw like anime characters). Its rating jumped up to 7.3 or something by the end (and I recall it being below 5 at one point). The animation was really depressing. |
| 7.9, maybe higher if the majority of people left by the end are big ol' fans of symbolism. |
| 6.8, maybe. Can score higher if it gets better, but a lot of people don't like this anime because it is somewhat random and/or hard to understand. I find it amusing. |
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| 6.7 |
FragOutFire said: Why am I a Berserk fan? All I ever experience is pain. We are in the eclipse and Miura has sacrificed us |
| I'm an Ikuhara fangirl so I'll keep on believing that this show will end up being really good and unexpected at the end. Put me down for a 7.5. |
surfboard_ said: 8.0 if plot thickens. BigSimo said: It was the same deal with Aku no Hana except that's more traditionally ugly (because rotoscoping and real life people are not without flaw like anime characters). Its rating jumped up to 7.3 or something by the end (and I recall it being below 5 at one point). The animation was really depressing. It was exactly the Aku no Hana rating rollercoaster that gave me the idea for this contest. I'll keep the OP post updated with the current rating and the history. Personally, if we get more episodes of YKA like Episode 4, we could see a very strong jump in the ratings indeed. |
| Lower then Utena/Penguindrum but not as low as the score is now. Will be stuck in the mid 7s unless if heaps of people drop it. |
| added the fourth most popular anime onto this site |
| Cool link - http://anime.daanst.net/?show=26165 Bdiah said: That's not really true... There're 2497 ranked shows, 95% is 63 - 2435 positions. They have 8.52 and 5.90 rating :Pon a site where 95% of television anime fall between 7.00 and 8.10. Only 50% of tv anime has score over 7.00 and 10% over 8.10... So in 7.00-8.10 range is only 40%. Anyway, I'll go with 7.77 |
| At most 7.50 if the quality makes us happy all the way through. More likely, it'll be around 7.00. |
| 7.30 I'm surprised that Penguindrum is rated like this now. I remember it rating here than Utena when I finished it, but maybe I'm remembering wrong. |
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| Update: Rating taken in reaction to Episode 4. Current Rating: 6.36 Unsurprisingly, Episode 4 resulted in a substantial gain for the show's rating, but it is still extremely low. I've updated the OP thread to add in other ratings. Regarding the vivan said: There're 2497 ranked shows, 95% is 63 - 2435 positions. They have 8.52 and 5.90 rating :P Only 50% of tv anime has score over 7.00 and 10% over 8.10... So in 7.00-8.10 range is only 40%. Back in 2013, when I had a lot more time on my hands, I took a survey of the MAL database. This was the distribution of TV Anime with a minimum uservote filter of 200 votes:  Indeed you are correct that 95% of reliably rated anime (2 standard deviations) on MAL are rated between 6.11 and 8.58. If you were to reconstruct the 1-10 rating scale to fit within this this incredibly narrow 2.47 point range, Yuri Kuma Arashi would be sitting at approximately 3/10. The scale would look something like this: 1 = 0 and above 2 = 6.11 and above 3 = 6.42 and above 4 = 6.73 and above 5 = 7.04 and above 6 = 7.35 and above 7 = 7.65 and above 8 = 7.96 and above 9 = 8.27 and above 10 = 8.58 and above Sorry for the incredibly nerdy and narrowly focused update. Thanks for the entries so far. I look forward to seeing how this develops further. |
| Well, half a year ago I wrote userscript for score conversion (from one avg and std. dev. to another). If you're into stats, then after some tweaking to match your taste you might find it handy. It has data for all anime/manga (not only TV). With your "reconstruction" (anime_avg = 7.345, anime_sd = 0.6175, new_avg = 6.0, new_sd = 2.0) new score is 2.95. My defaults are 50% most popular titles (7.276, 0.671), 5.5 avg and 1.5 sd, so I'm seeing it score this way (original score is visible on hover)  |
vivanFeb 3, 2015 4:31 AM
vivan said: Well, half a year ago I wrote userscript for score conversion (from one avg and std. dev. to another). If you're into stats, then after some tweaking to match your taste you might find it handy. It has data for all anime/manga (not only TV). With your "reconstruction" (anime_avg = 7.345, anime_sd = 0.6175, new_avg = 6.0, new_sd = 2.0) new score is 2.95. My defaults are 50% most popular titles (7.276, 0.671), 5.5 avg and 1.5 sd, so I'm seeing it score this way (original score is visible on hover) Amazing. Thank you for sharing this. I will be using. |
| I say 7.9 or higher if people try to understand the true plot and they don't drop the anime only for what they see |
XenocrisiFeb 6, 2015 12:34 PM
| Im gonna go with about a 7.4 |
| 7.2 |
| If people look at YKA like the other Ikuhara shows, then I think it'll get a decent rating, but I'm gonna go with 7.45 regardless. |
 Gaslight, gatekeep, girlboss. Mansplain, manipulate, malewife. |
| I think most of people will drop this master piece before ep 4 and so the rate of this anime will be surely low...sad, i think is fantastic this anime, YKA is too underrated only 6.41 |
| Going into the third week of this contest I am pleased to see that there are now 16 entrants, spanning between 6.70 and 8.00. Please note that you can edit your guess; however, on March 1st, all entries are final. As for the show, it's rating is in full recovery mode on MAL. For the past three weeks the show's rating has been on a steady upward trend of approximately 0.013 pts/day. If it continues this pace, then by April 12th (the day of reckoning for this contest), the show will have a rating of approximately 7.23 (good for you, Smudy!). However, if anything can be certain, it's that the trajectory of the rating will not stay the same (sorry, Smudy!). The show's rating increase is almost certain to either (a) taper off, or (b) spike at a much higher rating. This is to say nothing to the incredible rating instability that the end of the show will bring, for the vast hordes of watchers who refuse to score before finally completing the show. Thanks for your participation. I look forward to new entrants, and will keep the thread updated. |
BdiahFeb 11, 2015 8:44 PM
| 7.23 |
| It will rise, but it will definitely be/remain lower than Mawaru and Utena. |
hulksWAGON said: 7.23 I see what you did there, hulksWAGON... Angel said: It will rise, but it will definitely be/remain lower than Mawaru and Utena. Your statement is, so far, the universal consensus. Care to actually put a number on that vague prediction? |
| 7.77 |
| It'll rise when sh*t gets real. I predict a 7.95. |
on | is it me or Yuri Kuma Arashi will have a good rate when will finish? because in 2-3 weeks ago the rate was 6.24 and now 6.44. i think Yuri Kuma Arashi if will be very good for each episode will reach 7.50-8.00 for sure. i really hope in it |
| It be have a higher score but don't get past Penguindrum/Utena. |
| added the fourth most popular anime onto this site |
| My vote goes for a final rating around 7.5. If it continues with its current quality it'll certainly be above 7.00 by the end. |
| Another week of this contest has passed and we now have 21 entrants, spanning between 6.70 and 8.10. Please note that you can edit your guess; however, on March 1st, all entries are final. That's one final week and one final episode to add/edit your guesses! As for the show, the rating is still recovering on MAL, currently sitting at 6.47. The steady upward trend discussed previously has continued, but has slowed somewhat, averaging 0.010 pts/day (Instead of .013 ppd). If it continues this pace, then by April 12th (the day of reckoning), the show will have a rating of approximately 7.05 (Zuihou is currently closest to that projection). However, if anything can be certain, it's that the projection takes into account two assumptions: 1. The pace of the rating change is linear (and right now it appears to be logarithmic); and 2. The 10,000 users (not an exaggeration) who are watching but have not yet rated the show will follow the same ratings pattern as those who are actively rating the show. Given that the show currently has just under 4000 ratings, we can expect the number of ratings to at least double once the show ends, leading to a very unstable score. Should be fun! Thanks for your participation. I look forward to new entrants, and will keep the thread updated. |
| Around 7.30 I think. |
| 7.13 vodall won |
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tsudecimo said: 7.13 vodall won Wait, there are a lot of people that didn't yet voted. Probably will finish with a 7.3 |
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