Crunchyroll AOTY predictions

Madhav001 said:
Yup I had already made a prediction on 11 Nov on a forum I made on Vinland Saga S2 titled - "Do you think it is"

I want it to win but I am also pretty sure it won't win since it is a popularity award and not an actual award.

Ashton7X said:
Posting on this forum because S2 of Vinland Saga gets my vote for AOTY and I think it truly deserves it but knowing the crunchyroll awards, I feel it's less likely to get nominated and I'd be surprised if it does. Happy that it won AOTY on IGN and hopefully if it does get nominated it will win so it can get the recognition it truly deserves.

With that aside what are your predictions on AOTY for the Demon Sla- I mean, crunchyroll awards this year? I'm kinda unsure if Jujutsu Kaisen or Attack On Titan will get nominated because part of JJK aired in the fall and crunchyroll doesn't nominate fall shows of the past year but it did start in the summer so I'm a little confused on that. As for AOT, I feel it will be less likely because they're 2 separate movies that aired throughout the year and idk if they only count weekly series for the AOTY category. Maybe for the ongoing series category if they have that but yeah that's that.

As for my predictions, they are as follows and I put them in order of what I think are most likely to win to least. I can see any of the top 3 winning the most.

Oshi no Ko
Jujutsu Kaisen S2
Chainsaw Man
Mob Psycho S3
Bleach TYBW
Demon Slayer S3

If JJK doesn't get nominated for the reason I made then my guess that will replace it is Bocchi The Rock or of course Vinland Saga.

Rip_Lazarus said:

Demon Slayer S3 was mid af this yr, nothing like s2. Trust me it ain't winning nothing. Stuff like JJK far outclassed it this yr. Blue Lock might win best new series. One Piece should be on there but ok.
I want Vinland Saga to win but honestly wouldn't mind One Piece, Chainsaw Man or JJK S2 win. Mob Psycho III was really good but more of an epilogue so honestly I doubt it will win something.
Realistically, JJK S2 winning which I'm sort of fine with. Although, last time Cyberpunk Edgerunners won Anime of The Year, so there's a chance that people realize how beautiful s2 of Vinland Saga was and vote it anime of the year

Ashton7X said:

Demon Slayer is like a default nomination for almost everything that's why I included it and yeah I don't want it to win anything either after last year. And also the AOTY category only includes series' that premiered this year or continuing series that had a new season so One Piece will not be nominated for that. It will for sure be nominated for best continuing series and it will most likely win that. And yes hopefully Vinland Saga takes the W this year!

ktg said:
Osho no Ko is the most likely winner. Many people didn't like KnY, but animation-wise that was still the top.
If the jury actually has any knowledge on anime, then JJK and CSM won't be nominated. JJK's animation was a joke, while CSM story wasn't anything special.
So other popular choices are Blue Lock, One Piece, Bleach, Mob Psycho, Spy X Family, Eminence in Shadow.
I also would like to see Hikari no Ou, but it is underrated, so that's unlikely.

xenosys said:
I'll be very surprised if Demon Slayer picks up any awards this year. Until the final episode, S3 was mostly underwhelming and the discourse during the season confirmed it. No-one was really hyped for it at all.

They aren't not going to include a well-received Attack on Titan finale, even though it may not win.

Vinland Saga
Attack on Titan
JJK
Bocchi
Oshi no Ko
CSM

Would be the expected nominations with either AoT or Vinland winning it.

Would Frieren be eligible next year?

Rip_Lazarus said:

I'm like 90% sure that Oshi no Ko won't win. CSM and JJK S2 were both way more popular than it. And usually, these awards are just who watched what more. Kinda disagree with both statements u made about JJK and CSM but that's your opinion :)

ANR23 said:
In all honesty the real contenders should be

Vinland Saga
Heavenly Delusions
Frieren (though too recent so won’t be nominated)
Oshi no Ko (maybe but I don’t feel like it)

But we all know it will be JJK or AOT or CSM as these are popularity based awards and how many people saw.

So Vinland Saga and Heavenly Delusions though far superior than JJK of CSM or Oshi no Ko don’t have much chance. Well whatever.

I remember Summertime Rendering won a couple awards and was at least nominated when it came out. That made me happy. Masterpiece show.

I hope at least Heavenly Delusions gets a nomination somewhere. It deserves recognition.

ktg said:

Firstly, no, it's not an opinion. JJK animation-wise was weak, even some of the animators admitted that they couldn't deliver the quality they wanted. And CSM, for an anime only, was nothing special, because we got a relatively generic shounen start, so story-wise it was weak.
Secondly, your take on popularity is just wrong and we know it because Cyberpunk won last year against KnY and SnK. Both of those were much more popular than Cyberpunk. There are 2 things that are important and you ignored it. People favor new shows, because they want to appreciate them. So when you can vote for a JJK S2 or an Oshi no Ko, they will likely choose Oshi no Ko. And the second one, their impact on the media matters. Last year Oshi no Ko and Bocchi the Rock had the biggest impact. While Bocchi the Rock made hundreds of memes, even about beating the shit out of CSM, Oshi no Ko's opening was in the top 10 on the global billboards and top 1 on the excluding us list for weeks. These 2 aspects made Cyberpunk win too. Cyberpunk as a new show had advantage over SnK and KnY, while because of the pc game and its advertisement it was preferred compared to Spy X Family or LicoReco which are also new shows.

It's more than just popularity. That's why Oshi no Ko and Bocchi the Rock have the highest chance right now to win.

And to be fair, with that many interesting shows this year, even I forgot to mention some and just got remembered when I read the replies. It is also possible that shows like CSM or JJK are not even nominated for anime of the year. Probably one of them will be nominated, but not both of them. At least if Crunchyroll still goes with 6 nominations.

ktg said:

Firstly, no, it's not an opinion. JJK animation-wise was weak, even some of the animators admitted that they couldn't deliver the quality they wanted. And CSM, for an anime only, was nothing special, because we got a relatively generic shounen start, so story-wise it was weak.
Secondly, your take on popularity is just wrong and we know it because Cyberpunk won last year against KnY and SnK. Both of those were much more popular than Cyberpunk. There are 2 things that are important and you ignored it. People favor new shows, because they want to appreciate them. So when you can vote for a JJK S2 or an Oshi no Ko, they will likely choose Oshi no Ko. And the second one, their impact on the media matters. Last year Oshi no Ko and Bocchi the Rock had the biggest impact. While Bocchi the Rock made hundreds of memes, even about beating the shit out of CSM, Oshi no Ko's opening was in the top 10 on the global billboards and top 1 on the excluding us list for weeks. These 2 aspects made Cyberpunk win too. Cyberpunk as a new show had advantage over SnK and KnY, while because of the pc game and its advertisement it was preferred compared to Spy X Family or LicoReco which are also new shows.

It's more than just popularity. That's why Oshi no Ko and Bocchi the Rock have the highest chance right now to win.

And to be fair, with that many interesting shows this year, even I forgot to mention some and just got remembered when I read the replies. It is also possible that shows like CSM or JJK are not even nominated for anime of the year. Probably one of them will be nominated, but not both of them. At least if Crunchyroll still goes with 6 nominations.

Rip_Lazarus said:
If you think I'm wrong, somehow Demon Slayer S2 won best fantasy last Yr. It was good but how did it win best fantasy? Its because people watched that more than the other nominees.

Rip_Lazarus said:
Yes the animators of JJK couldn't do what they could do to the best of their abilities and yet JJK had beautiful and incredibly animated scenes despite its flaws.

Rip_Lazarus said:
Sure episode 14 was bad in terms of animation and Sukuna Vs Mahagora is sorta unfinished(still a sick fight) but episode 13, 16, 18, 19, 20 and even episode 3 and 4 were all great in the animation aspect.

Rip_Lazarus said:
Your view is an opinion, not a fact, just like this view of mine is an opinion. If it was fact, JJK wouldn't be so highly rated on MAL and IDMB.

Rip_Lazarus said:
Same thing with Chainsaw Man, I personally loved the vibe, direction, and story of Chainsaw man. It's different from typical shonen and that was nice to watch. In no way is CSM generic, you can tell that just from looking at the main character, Denji.

Rip_Lazarus said:
ou disagree, that's fine. However, CSM is incredibly popular not because its bad but because a lot of people resonated with it and loved it.

Rip_Lazarus said:
Oshi no ko was good, but against the JJK and CSM fandom. JJK is way too popular rn, and has had a huge impact on social media and people glaze CSM on a daily(myself included).

Rip_Lazarus said:
shows like Blue Lock is also more popular and had more significant impact on stuff like social media. Doesn't mean Oshi no Ko can't win but still.

Rip_Lazarus said:
Vinland Saga might even be more popular than Oshi No Ko on social media because of the tiktok meme, "I have no enemies." Against all that, idk if I'll bet it on Oshi No Ko winning AOTY

Rip_Lazarus said:
Your take on media is so wrong man not even tryna be rude. Telling me Oshi no ko and Bocchi had more impact on than JJK S2 is crazy. JJK S2 bro. I can see ur point with Oshi no ko but nah not with bocchi. Also bro people favor the familiar more. That's why people stick to a certain genre with isekai or shonen cuz they know what they like and know what to expect.

Rip_Lazarus said:
JJK S2 is way more popular than Oshi No Ko that's matter of fact man sry. Stuff like Lobotomy Kaisen and just the impact its had on social media, its insane. You had people on the edge of their seat waiting for the 'I'm you' panel to get animated. Skyfall started getting streamed more because of people using it with JJK edits.

Rip_Lazarus said:
As for CSM idk. I assume CSM is more popular because of the hype it had. It had a lot more hype than both Oshi No Ko and Bocchi. You can tell its still people cuz people are hyped for the new movie. I think its def more popular than bocchi but idk about Oshi No Ko.

Rip_Lazarus said:
Blue Lock might also be more popular than Oshi no Ko. December 2022 X Blue Lock was crazy. You had Japan beating big teams like Germany, while they were basically advertising Blue Lock. Blue Lock also sold way more copies than Oshi no ko in manga sales, so realistically a lot of people watched Blue Lock than Oshi No ko.

ktg said:
@Rip_Lazarus Fk, I wrote a comment, but because of power outage, I lost everything... I'll reply both of your comments in one answer.


Firstly, I was talking about anime of the year, but...
Secondly, I can actually understand that. The other options were weaker, at least aside from Mushoku Tensei. And MT unlikely to win anything because of the questionable stuff in it that people don't like. But the other shows. Ousama Ranking's second half was considered weaker by the audience as well as the whole Vanitas no Carte. Overlord was somewhat better than those 2, but still not as good as KnY. And MiA, well..., it was also weaker. The first season was really good and many people liked it because of the adventure, but those adventurous parts were missing from this season and because of that, it felt slower. (Most of these are - again - not my opinions, check out comments and critiques. This is what the audience thought about the shows).
So, because of those nominations, KnY is actually an acceptable winner. I can't really argue with this, because the really good fantasies weren't even nominated. Eminence in Shadow were easily better than at least 3 of those nominations.


That's great, but we have shows that delivered great animation without those mistakes, therefore nominating JJK while we had better shows is not really justifiable.


Actually no, the rock bottom was around ep 16-18 animation-wise and that was even below average. And again, just because we had like 1 or 2 minutes good animation but another bad shot after that, that does not justify being nominated.


No, half of the thing I said is actually fact. When we have 2 shows and one of them animation-wise consistently good, like Oshi no Ko, while the other one sometimes good and sometimes bad, like JJK, then obviously JJK is worse.
Using ratings is a pretty bad take. Everyone agrees that Game of Thrones had a downhill after S4. On IMDb S8 had even episodes with rating of 4, but the overall rating still 9.2.
So no, rating does not mean anything when we are talking about quality.


That's a fact again. This is how most of the shounen start. Average kid with little to no power got into trouble and turn into something unique with power. Because of that, he has to join an organization etc.
Denji is actually a bad example, because he was, yes, written differently than an average MC, but because of writing, it has similar vibe. Denji is an idiot, not really a well-defined character because he was written as an idiot, but because of that he has the same "vibe" as a badly written average shounen MC without a personality. Same why, Denji at this point lacks personality.


I don't disagree, it's just simply not true what you said, but that's fine.
It was actually hyped up, that's all. Same way with Cyberpunk, it was not Anime of the Year quality, we had better shows in that year and still won. That's where the impact on the medium comes into play.
Cyberpunk had a super simple story, without much twist and it was predictable and still won. That is why it has nothing to do with liking something or with the quality.

In last year, Hikari no Ou and Undead Girl Murder Farce were really good and people hardly see those. Undead Girl Murder Farce potentially has the best directing in 2023 (same director as Kaguya-sama Love is War) and 50k watched it only. Everyone complemented Monogatari for its really good and unique directing, it has a similar style.
Godzilla SP has one of the best and most complex story from the last couple years and it's below 7.
So again, ratings has nothing to do with quality.


Not really. JJK has little to no impact outside of its fanbase. You failed to notice it because you are a fan, but I have friends who heard about Bocchi the Rock and Oshi no Ko, but not about JJK. Oshi no Ko had bigger impact outside of its fans and awards like this that does matter better. The same is true for Cyberpunk, I know people who hate watching anime, but they watched Cyberpunk.
As for CSM, the only meme that I'm aware that had a huge impact outside on anime communities is when Bocchi the Rock beating the crap out of CSM.


Again, that's simply not true. Outside of the fanbase, Blue Lock has almost no impact. Compared to that, Oshi no Ko destroyed the internet.


That's not a really known meme. While yes, that's actually more popular than JJK. That's why I mentioned CSM and JJK as being the weaker shows. Vinland Saga was significantly better and had bigger impact, while many fans did not like how it turned out with its slower pacing and slightly weaker animation.
And being said, in the first round the jury nominates the contenders. What I believe will be there in Anime of the Year:
- Oshi no Ko
- Bocchi the Rock
- MP100 (this is the last season, so last chance to nominate it)
- Vinland Saga S2

- The next one is questionable how Crunchyroll handles the titles. If SnK can be nominated as ONE title and cannot be in the next year, then SnK will be here. If that's not the case, we still have Tengoku Daimakyou, Mushoku Tensei, Nier: Automata Ver1.1a, Witch from Mercury S2, KnY, Insomniacs After School and Bleach (actually twice). Because we are talking about jury here, I found some of these more likely than JJK. (Maybe One Piece too, Idk how they want to handle that).
- And the last one, CSM or JJK. Plot-wise the jury probably prefer JJK, but they are aware of the animation quality problems, so CSM might be their choice.

This is how I can imagine the AotY nominations. And the other issue that probably favors shows like Oshi no Ko, battle shounen fan tends to vote for different titles, because there are more than one option for that. Probably that's how Yuri on Ice won, when there were MP100, BnHA and Re:Zero as nominations.


No, this is actually fact what I said.
Yes, they go with what they like until you introduce a meme where Bocchi the Rock beat the crap out of CSM. Then the fanbase starts to wonder how good the other show is. Hype changes many things and that's one of them.
Again, JJK has huge influence in its own fanbase and maybe in the battle shounen fanbase, but outside of that, not really. While Bocchi the Rock and Oshi no Ko were able to reach out and grab the attention of the audience outside of these boxes.

You should check out google's global search in 2023. In songs category, Oshi no Ko's op were the most searched on the WHOLE PLANET. In TV shows category, One Piece was 4th. You cannot see this because you are part of these fanbase. To see how big these shows' impact, you have to talk to people outside of the fanbase.


Among the fans, but that's all, that's what I'm saying. If fans were able to win these awards, then last year KnY would have won anime of the year and even will win this too, because based on google searches, KnY was searched more than JJK.

You can't win this with just fans. That's not enough. And saying that "fans waiting to be animated X panel". No one cares, because most fans are not reading the manga. We are not voting for a potential in an anime, we are voting for the adaptation.


Again, you find them hyped, because you are part of that community, while Oshi no Ko fans are hyped for S2 and Bocchi the Rock fans are hyped for the movies and waiting for S2.
Yes, originally CSM was more hyped up, but it pretty much failed compared to the other 2. Actually Bocchi the Rock "won" that race, because CSM wasn't able to deliver that level of quality.

You based your argument on the manga community. Bocchi the Rock significantly outsold CSM after the anime. CSM sales were around 1.7k, while Bocchi the Rock had 16k. In that season, even with MP100 and Bleach, Bocchi the Rock was considered the best.


But again, outside of the fanbase, that means nothing. Even if you are a soccer fan, you have zero knowledge on Blue Lock.
I'm slightly skeptical about Blue Lock actually. While people liked it, animation-wise it had problem, when they needed to use those CGI characters in the background. That's why I don't think it will be nominated as Anime of the Year.

Rip_Lazarus said:
Aight bro you gotta understand what you say is not a fact. It's an opinion. If it was a fact everyone would agree on it. It's a fact that 1 + 1= 2

Rip_Lazarus said:
It's not a fact that JJK S2 had weak animation because well majority would disagree on that. Take a look on this app for example. Sure ratings aren't always a good way to judge something but it shouldn't be entirely dismissed.

Rip_Lazarus said:
When multiple big YouTubers in and out of the anime community praise something, that means a lot. Penguinzo is massive, huge YouTuber. He talks about a lot of stuff. Yet, he praised both vinland and JJK S2. Not Bocchi or Oshi No Ko. That's one youtuber sure. But you look on social media like twitter, tiktok and youtube and JJK is way bigger than Bocchi The Rock and Oshi No Ko.

Rip_Lazarus said:
Let's look at tiktok, one of the most used apps in the world rn
JJK hashtags-96.9 billion views
Chainsaw Man hashtags-29 billion views
Blue lock hashtags- 21.9 billion views
Oshi No Ko hashtags- 5.1 billion views
Vinland Saga hashtags- 4.3 billion views
Bocchi The Rock hashtags-859.3 million views

Rip_Lazarus said:
Also soccer(pls just call it football) is the biggest sport in the world. The world cup is one of the biggest events in the world, that's why countries fight and pay huge money over who van host it. The amount of tourism and money it generates is crazy. So when you have a team in the wc performing so well and they are basically advertising a manga and an anime, there is no way in the world that that manga or anime doesn't become popular. You can see that by Blue Lock's manga having huge sales rn and looking at the views it has on tiktok.

Rip_Lazarus said:
Cyberpunk Edgerunners is an exception. By far Attack On Titan Final Season pt 2 and Demon Slayer S2 were way more popular than it. Not even debatable. If Cyberpunk Edgerunners was more popular it was have won in another category, it didn't tho.

Rip_Lazarus said:
Also, only people who actively watch anime would vote for these awards you know. So in the anime community which do think is more popular.

Rip_Lazarus said:
So in the anime community which do think is more popular.
AOT pt 2-Mega giant that has made anime more mainstream
Demon slayer s2- Literally exceeded so many expectations and is the show with the best animation oat

Rip_Lazarus said:
Or Cyberpunk Edgerunners(which I loved and deserved AOTY because it was better than both those shows, not because it was more popular).

ktg said:
@Rip_Lazarus Lol.


Incorrect. Just because something is a fact that does not mean everyone agrees on it. Like it is a fact the Earth is not flat, and still there are flat-earthers.
People, in many cases, tend to ignore facts to justify their opinions. Anime is a great example for that. Even JJK's animators said that, for example, EPX had weak animation. When I was talking to them I was the stupid calling it weak, while even the ANIMATOR acknowledged it. This is how people deny facts that they don't like.


Again, I'm not the only one saying this. Animators acknowledged it. Can you understand it? The people who worked on the show knew that it is not that good.
That's my point. While you could debate that Vinland Saga S2 animation was better, worse or the same as before, because the animators did not say anything about that, it's not the case with JJK.

Okay, let's rephrase this. If I'm wrong about this, then the animators too. So you are saying that the animators who worked on it, cannot tell the difference between good and bad animation. You are literally calling them incompetent with this take.

And yes, we can ignore the rating in this case. You can ask One Piece fans about the animation and they will tell you that around Dressrosa it was really weak and still One Piece's rating is 8.7. That does not look like a show with weak animation.


Sadly that has little to impact on anime. Trash taste has bigger influence, at least if we really wanna talk about influencers in this regard.


This would be a good indicator if:
1. the tiktok views come from different people.
2. it would be impossible that one or two people spam these contents that made the views skyrocket.
On tiktok if you watch even a second, then it counts as a view. So if I made 10 million videos about JJK and you just spam over all of them, then it is 10 million views.

Sorry to make you sad, but in most cases influencers recommendations are not followed by fans. The biggest part of their audience are just consumers and they don't put effort into it. That's why even if moistcritical made a video about JJK, 99% of his audience won't care, won't even lift a finger to look it up.
Check out how JJK numbers moved after moistcritical's video on MAL and on IMDb. It had almost no impact. We are looking for an audience that can be utilized to vote for an anime. An audience that not lazy to act. For example and audience that willing to look for a song and search for it in google, like it happened with Oshi no Ko.

And btw, the problem with this # search is that there are more #s for a show, especially if the title is a bit longer. Like there are another 300 million views for #bocchi. But okay, let's use your logic.
On tiktok.
#boruto has 48 billion views, must be better than CSM. If we add #Naruto, that's another 332 billion.
#onepiece has 263 billion.
#tokyorevengers has 74 billion.
#mha has 92 billion and #myheroacademia has another 62 billion.
#bleach has 35 billion.
#bungoustraydogs has 19 billion.

Based on this numbers, Vinland Saga and CSM won't be even nominated in any category, because no one knows about those compared to Boruto, which based on your logic is one of the best show.
Even better than one of the winner from an earlier year, because #yurionice has less than 4 billion views. Or last year winner, because #cyberpunkedgerunners has only 2 billion views.

I hope with these numbers you can notice how stupid your argument is, because based on these numbers Cyberpunk and Yuri on Ice would have never won. Having content created to an anime that has certain number of views are always bad indicators.


But again that does not mean anything on the west. Yes, what the japanese team did was a really good advertisement for the manga and the anime IN JAPAN, but outside of Japan it had no effect. For a football fan from the west (I usually use soccer because that's what americans understand) they don't really know about anime. I personally don't follow football cups, but I have relatives who follow it and they have no idea what Blue Lock is. That advertisement does not work outside of Japan. And while you can use Crunchyroll in Japan, it is still mostly for the western audience. We will vote.


Cyberpunk is a proof of that, because inside Japan, it was an unknown show. Almost no one heard about it and yet, it won. So this is decided by the western audience. Most likely americans, I assume that's where the Crunchyroll users mostly live.
That's actually also proves my point. People try vote "fairly", if they voted for a show in X category, then they try to choose something else in a different category. That's also against JJK, because it will probably win best fight.


That's true, for example the fans that are willing to look up a song like Idol from YOASOBI and not the ones that just brainlessly watch millions of tiktok vidoes. I don't even have a tiktok account.
And btw, what I tried to point out several times, but you still ignore it. In the "first round" the jury will nominate. And that's where I also doubt that they will pick JJK.
You've read my list in my previous response and you can also see the previous years nominations. Because they try to nominate new stuff, they picked LicoReco and Spy x Family last year. So in this year, when we had Oshi no Ko, Bocchi the Rock, Tengoku Daimakyou, Insomniacs After School. There are limited spots to sequels. And if I'm correct, they will prefer MP100 (as last season) and Vinland Saga S2.

There are not enough spots for CSM and JJK.


Yes, but what is your point? Cyberpunk won. Popularity is not everything and that's my point, because Cyberpunk won. Or I would say that the popularity that you can observe is not the winning factor.
Cyberpunk had huge impact because these was a really hyped PC game, which made not-anime fans to watch it. I personally know people that don't like anime and watched it. That's my point.


It definitely did not deserve it. It had a weak and predictable plot. You could easily tell that this was written on the west. The characters were relatively good.
Summertime Render was better overall and even Yofukashi no Uta had, for example, better directing.

Rip_Lazarus said:

Aight bro I can't win with you agree to disagree. I'll be real I cba to argue anymore.

ktg said:

Obviously because you didn't even argue about my original take. I was talking about nominations firstly and that has nothing to do with popularity.
And even with your take on popularity, you were arguing with facts. It's like you were saying the Earth is flat. No, it's not. You pointed out data that does not prove your point, because according to that, Cyberpunk would have never won.

HeSaidArise said:
@ktg guess we were both right and wrong