Question about ep. 4

Spleefy said:
How is the MC getting this math?

Yeshaiah2015yesh said:

yah bro previous eps already left me with second thought. and now this ep made it even worst, iam starting to dislike this anime.
hope the next episode turns the table. and make me change my perspective of the anime and the characters.

dxtremecaliber said:

they literally explained the replies above you why he did get that math conclusion smh…

rangedsp said:
Yea it's a pretty standard way to assess risk / probability. Given the probability of each assumption and multiply by each other to get total probability.

Easy way to think about is Russian roulette, each time you have 5/6 (83%) chance of surviving, so that's pretty good odds right? But if you play it twice, your chance of surviving is 5/6 * 5/6 (69%), while 3 of them your survival chance becomes 57%, a little over half.

So each thing happening may be independently toss up or even likely, for all three to happen, it becomes quite unlikely.

I think the issue that many don't realize is the percentage is expressed as a decimal, I.e. 0.17 instead of 17%, so it looks smaller than it is.

rangedsp said:
Yea it's a pretty standard way to assess risk / probability. Given the probability of each assumption and multiply by each other to get total probability.

Easy way to think about is Russian roulette, each time you have 5/6 (83%) chance of surviving, so that's pretty good odds right? But if you play it twice, your chance of surviving is 5/6 * 5/6 (69%), while 3 of them your survival chance becomes 57%, a little over half.

So each thing happening may be independently toss up or even likely, for all three to happen, it becomes quite unlikely.

I think the issue that many don't realize is the percentage is expressed as a decimal, I.e. 0.17 instead of 17%, so it looks smaller than it is.

px_drstreak said:

cause i dont see the essence of calculating what was obvious in the face of the viewers in a complicated manner😒😒